TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,748 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf596…026cbacked Yes8c985$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.256937.7%26 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca5f…1e74backed Yes14c275.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5511342.5%48 W · 65 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03c5…45b5backed Yes70c241$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.71118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.32per pick51cpaid-71.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes45c238.69$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.976637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2484930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0c5…696bbacked Yes10c192.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ab2…05c7backed No71c168$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f4…49e7backed Yes15c145$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.275068%34 W · 16 L+9.9wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2522…6ee1backed Yes29c142$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7287…d1a3backed No30c141$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.71040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6357…9d92backed Yes33c130$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd53b…1f91backed Yes29c123$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f6…f387backed No64c119.8$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes12c118$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.163636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac90…1383backed No55c117$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb12a…8d19backed No11c114.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.012729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+87.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb182…005fbacked Yes20c101.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060033.8%203 W · 397 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd666…bb93backed No33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+201.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f9…4b22backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.21,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4765…c9a0backed Yes75c95$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.251266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+75.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f46…c3c0backed No64c91$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.463100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfc…4b9bbacked Yes21c80$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x495b…4627backed Yes63c79$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb55d…84b0backed No37c77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+167.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2387…e954backed Yes27c76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…9f20backed Yes66c75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.317447.3%35 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4de…9b81backed Yes24c66.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.981361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d2…892dbacked Yes27c62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cd…3384backed No25c55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.25862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+41.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6641…1b51backed No37c53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x138e…e1d3backed Yes32c53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00c8…cd4dbacked No73c51$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf872…2e34backed Yes52c51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked No41c50.23$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6411254.5%61 W · 51 L+20.1wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+75.9%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x39dc…7af1backed Yes38c47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa444…62f0backed Yes32c47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0df…a552backed No37c46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes64c45.12$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8825947.5%123 W · 136 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd364…6375backed Yes32c45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e8…d079backed Yes32c44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf59a…ed62backed Yes45c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No29c43.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.862506%15 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d3e…9a55backed No71c43$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7856…1707backed Yes26c43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…2743backed Yes52c43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73b3…d178backed Yes45c43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc72d…2311backed No37c43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf9…36d1backed No33c42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+201.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f9c…c9c3backed Yes32c42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e3b…22ccbacked Yes52c42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…2cbbbacked Yes46c41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dda…bc78backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a29…a453backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69d8…0432backed No25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x422f…3ffbbacked No34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+195%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9e2…0641backed Yes67c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2edc…5fbabacked No38c39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+162.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4c9…62fabacked Yes38c39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb38c…a51cbacked Yes45c38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0203…987fbacked Yes45c37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3512…2c99backed No35c37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+183.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes55c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1432133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59f9…5d5fbacked Yes63c35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…ab41backed Yes46c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20fe…79bbbacked Yes30c34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb305…8269backed No48c34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a70…be64backed No69c34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35d3…497ebacked No48c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0225…da57backed No67c33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd72a…b950backed No48c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa68c…5c18backed Yes45c31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes41c30.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.491,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x78c3…2016backed No37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+167.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77fb…b8dbbacked No48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d09…fbd2backed Yes52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa54b…7a1fbacked Yes46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa79b…730bbacked Yes46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x217c…47f8backed No71c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d8…cd99backed Yes46c29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49cb…a277backed No73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95a8…eaa0backed No54c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb762…e58ebacked Yes63c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf552…e9b2backed Yes63c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5c0…3608backed Yes46c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cec…96abbacked No69c27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a74…413ebacked Yes76c26.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+80.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8c0d…ece6backed No54c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1861…c4babacked Yes46c26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cbb…11fbbacked No55c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bcf…7759backed No54c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd39…ed73backed Yes63c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f2…0627backed Yes63c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d9…e52ebacked No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5abf…1d74backed No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ebe…7442backed No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b7…0878backed No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb479…e5cebacked No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26b2…282fbacked No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bd5…9454backed Yes41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2540%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.