Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90126993924108e6ea5760cf8ac912c840390ba8959edb5bedd89b979eb56939
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8542…90c6backed Yes | 10c | 301$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…074cbacked Yes | 11c | 162$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 24c | 149.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 10c | 147.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 80c | 133.85$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 109.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00d…30bcbacked Yes | 10c | 108.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe41e…75c2backed No | 72c | 105$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…3515backed Yes | 28c | 92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc655…bd1dbacked Yes | 21c | 81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d8…5af0backed Yes | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…fccdbacked No | 72c | 73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7db…1d5fbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7649…a735backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x763b…ab3cbacked Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…d320backed Yes | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 53c | 43.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +9.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc6de…5536backed No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722b…cc55backed Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…616fbacked No | 53c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 34.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x48c5…8a51backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…2fa3backed Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b5…2af5backed No | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…a09abacked No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf974…63b5backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…3728backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…eef8backed No | 69c | 22.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f5…ce65backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9425…f733backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb454…0062backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2d…9fc1backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…4b5ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01cb…2a40backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edf…94c0backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or higher on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.