Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or higher on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dc2c71bb85b5bb45c9e4af4197aa5f528153d39f3b505db7323c1a64d056903
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb35d…92a0backed Yes | 0c | 53,884$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,722.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 0cpaid | +16,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 17c | 1,318$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.21 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 10c | 539.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.59 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 75c | 502.13$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…f11dbacked Yes | 29c | 319$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 15c | 248.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.46 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 29c | 247$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.74 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…f88dbacked Yes | 11c | 240$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +407.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 6c | 238.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.44 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed No | 70c | 199.35$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.42 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf78d…6fb5backed Yes | 44c | 176.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.11 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 12c | 138.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x413e…fcacbacked Yes | 15c | 111$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 32c | 98.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.14 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 16c | 98.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d31…aa21backed Yes | 23c | 98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +338.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…cc82backed Yes | 15c | 95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +235.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…a918backed Yes | 37c | 92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…8372backed Yes | 26c | 82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +287.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 75.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…77bdbacked No | 70c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…91c9backed Yes | 31c | 69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +134.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x227a…9c4abacked Yes | 23c | 67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +338.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c16…51c4backed No | 73c | 66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a8…ef11backed Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 31cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 60c | 58.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc39…09d8backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +287.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…09a7backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +287.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…c500backed No | 63c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218b…60a4backed Yes | 37c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…e469backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…fdb8backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…c8c6backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…56c5backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…0fa2backed Yes | 37c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…a94abacked Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be9…cfc5backed Yes | 32c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…6e3bbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…19a0backed No | 62c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…04d3backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x780c…3113backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…b4e4backed No | 63c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc51d…661abacked No | 70c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c5…ffb2backed No | 63c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d66…3c93backed No | 63c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…dfc5backed No | 63c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61cf…629abacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d54…bcbebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab4…2e5fbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…326cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf068…5bbdbacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4118…7418backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd321…0c8abacked No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e05…3e33backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…a327backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5958…4b8fbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3882…f6d1backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…8d8cbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…0caabacked No | 69c | 23.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5e…4aa0backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca33…c729backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…a831backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x132f…ea6cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…e1f5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8636…094ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed6a…60f5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff31…5166backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc84d…508cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0630…ae30backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce21…20acbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…8295backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee18…8ae4backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea53…0414backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…90b3backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2d…51babacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2f…ba17backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…d984backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…be19backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or higher on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.