Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x852c9aae07781a783967d5d5ac1813e637d1a62d5f1691bffefc71d6412a2c67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 31c | 899.99$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.99 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Yes | 73c | 805.43$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.95 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed No | 50c | 653.77$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.72 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 53c | 399.98$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.99 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9627…7d99backed No | 56c | 383$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…ddd9backed Yes | 44c | 378$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…2cd2backed Yes | 14c | 352.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 19c | 322.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 64c | 314.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 28c | 293.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 32c | 279.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 24c | 231.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…3d73backed Yes | 26c | 214$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 13c | 186$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…49d6backed Yes | 8c | 185$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 183.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…5f78backed Yes | 44c | 171$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331c…b18fbacked No | 74c | 157$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…c820backed Yes | 60c | 155$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…09fbbacked Yes | 32c | 133$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x493e…7f4ebacked No | 56c | 131$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 29c | 124.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 37c | 123.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4eccbacked No | 40c | 114$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…4425backed No | 68c | 108$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…ce60backed No | 40c | 81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…8c22backed No | 61c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 43c | 79.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 57c | 74.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…91ffbacked Yes | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 21c | 72.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…77e9backed Yes | 39c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…3951backed Yes | 19c | 53.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…8793backed Yes | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…8b4fbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…9d65backed No | 29c | 49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…af95backed No | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6554…098dbacked No | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…27c4backed No | 40c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506e…877abacked Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8d…cd91backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29a…e35cbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…2d4dbacked Yes | 47c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…54fcbacked Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…e17bbacked Yes | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…b985backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4a6abacked Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd086…b3b3backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…5f67backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb96c…36c1backed Yes | 60c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0df…fb86backed No | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…7de0backed No | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…329abacked No | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6908…7e84backed No | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70c…e285backed No | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…069dbacked Yes | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890e…fe2ebacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f832backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…0cd5backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…6176backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…3a14backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…c703backed No | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…a327backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e57…b649backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50a…34acbacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7bbbbacked No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed No | 77c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…7eacbacked No | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…7dc8backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…7f28backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…987fbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc82…db33backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…4df5backed Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc38…92c0backed Yes | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b2…154fbacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…d196backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…d19abacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff6…51d3backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 79c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or higher on March 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.