Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf17aeb6eefc67b869130f360b5ad1fe4cda508ea2cf8a2e4807f373aabc84dd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,947$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,082$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed No | 42c | 930.59$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.49 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 48c | 820.04$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.74 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 77c | 689.97$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.5 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 23c | 378.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 58c | 370$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.7 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 72c | 278.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked No | 32c | 211.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.02 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…1f7fbacked Yes | 74c | 210$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 20c | 189.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…de5ebacked No | 19c | 185$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 71c | 149.16$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7287…d1a3backed No | 26c | 110$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…cf56backed Yes | 48c | 106.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 78c | 102.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…4b22backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 68c | 80.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…0bd5backed Yes | 76c | 79.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…838bbacked No | 26c | 78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 16c | 71.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67cd…82a5backed Yes | 74c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa059…d6fbbacked Yes | 74c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 71c | 33.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…e32dbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…5e48backed Yes | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…9542backed Yes | 75c | 27.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 51c | 21.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9479…38f5backed Yes | 65c | 21.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…517dbacked Yes | 66c | 20.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…5c87backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…0529backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e4…b590backed Yes | 75c | 19.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°F or below on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 37-38°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.