Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9780a68ba6bf8943bce6a60e0b0bdd6d579b23be55531601a3f540a8d020bd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7567…4981backed Yes | 4c | 78,000$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,880 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 1cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,030$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.97 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 21c | 925.98$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.24 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…d219backed Yes | 11c | 903.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 73c | 444.56$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 11c | 431.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.86 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 32c | 315.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.87 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 18c | 263.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 73c | 259.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.75 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.75 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 22c | 243.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.7 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 24c | 207.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.48 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 198.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…a6adbacked No | 51c | 193.59$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec84…cb9ebacked Yes | 11c | 182.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.61 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 12c | 172.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.79 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…38a6backed Yes | 14c | 169.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked Yes | 68c | 159$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…c9a0backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 75c | 108.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…79e5backed Yes | 13c | 100.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +684.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed Yes | 30c | 99.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 80.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7b…f4c4backed No | 80c | 64.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 80c | 54.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…0bd5backed Yes | 73c | 39.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd318…637bbacked No | 76c | 30.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35d…7918backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe261…a8b6backed No | 75c | 24.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…15a1backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°F or below on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 37-38°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.