NFL · resolved market
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0d18223ae08a54f465af31fbbcf2d33c570c4ca08df234e647f27fdd52eba0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 72c | 2,410$1,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.14 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 19c | 2,365$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.8 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…8bd5backed Yes | 28c | 2,234$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 65c | 1,158$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.71 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…5b52backed No | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6037…1e45backed Yes | 77c | 605$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6a…6db6backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 329.7$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.95 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…d6e4backed Yes | 77c | 325$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 68c | 173.29$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…6a7dbacked No | 75c | 134.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 65c | 132.77$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236f…413fbacked No | 71c | 103.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 62cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef70…339fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…78e8backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 34c | 80.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…63f2backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…7f8dbacked Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 32c | 69.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf03…28dbbacked Yes | 42c | 62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0b…1077backed No | 58c | 62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 51.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 65c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…3ff6backed No | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7287…d1a3backed Yes | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e78…4e67backed Yes | 64c | 31.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…68b0backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 53c | 18.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 2 QBs get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?this page
- Will 1 QB get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will 3 QBs get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will 4 or more QBs get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.