NFL · resolved market
Will 3 QBs get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ba55c699c132c3aae2e3bdf2c58e4434304bb9fac54d9ea7f3feda7cce9c33e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82d9…6dafbacked No | 62c | 915$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 61c | 755.43$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.25 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…37adbacked Yes | 38c | 670$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…8c33backed No | 61c | 655$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 54c | 604.95$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.76 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8877…e6ccbacked Yes | 39c | 580$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…b31cbacked No | 62c | 525$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d8…a7d3backed Yes | 39c | 415$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea6…674dbacked Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…9204backed No | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1177…3fe3backed No | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…8af6backed Yes | 38c | 285$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…dc3bbacked Yes | 38c | 280$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 276.16$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.87 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…07f2backed Yes | 39c | 255$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…4490backed Yes | 39c | 255$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30b…1adfbacked Yes | 39c | 255$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…a755backed Yes | 39c | 255$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…5146backed Yes | 38c | 255$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d62…f8eabacked Yes | 37c | 255$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…fe3dbacked Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…235abacked No | 61c | 230$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…fc9dbacked Yes | 38c | 210$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…6777backed Yes | 39c | 195$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…e87abacked No | 61c | 180$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…0d0fbacked No | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…d007backed No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c3…84b0backed No | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cc…47bbbacked No | 61c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…3257backed No | 62c | 155$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab4…9464backed No | 61c | 155$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1930…7d54backed Yes | 65c | 152.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…b02bbacked Yes | 76c | 130.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 38c | 127.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 61c | 127.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 35c | 111.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…dd76backed Yes | 37c | 110.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…78e8backed Yes | 52c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6a…f057backed No | 61c | 95.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 39c | 87.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 59c | 84.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 60c | 72.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 59c | 68.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6a…7e49backed No | 69c | 57.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3954…decbbacked No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d0…b336backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed Yes | 39c | 41.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -77%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb35…1b24backed Yes | 59c | 39.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 30c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…e91abacked Yes | 63c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d97…f7c2backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb160…812bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…a356backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…7a9bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 47c | 27.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 40c | 27.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef70…339fbacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 3 QBs get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?this page
- Will 1 QB get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will 2 QBs get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?Yes won
- Will 4 or more QBs get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.