Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97c3a80566e603375549ac87a4071ca9aa821fc9ff06ad1cba75c7e610bb195d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,032$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf18…aba4backed No | 56c | 468.65$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…6212backed Yes | 76c | 400$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e47backed Yes | 66c | 350$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d8…0432backed Yes | 65c | 320$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 70c | 284.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 75c | 247.47$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.73 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…38a6backed No | 24c | 230$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +183.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 77c | 210.02$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.82 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…a16dbacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed Yes | 12c | 198.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 36c | 179.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.19 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…311ebacked No | 24c | 170$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 36cpaid | +214.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7287…d1a3backed No | 35c | 170$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f32…6fe5backed No | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…4635backed No | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 137$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed Yes | 70c | 122.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 55c | 101.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…aa0bbacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…45b5backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…c2bcbacked No | 41c | 73.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 51c | 66.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed Yes | 61c | 64.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 72c | 30.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…e162backed No | 75c | 26.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…6b49backed No | 72c | 21.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…db0cbacked Yes | 73c | 21.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…0eccbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.