Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 61-62°F on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9db531c9da70c183cea425e0dd00ddae96dae5745b41530697841f702cfbbd01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6279…fb37backed No | 77c | 325.34$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 52c | 287.8$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.09 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 20c | 200.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 72c | 195$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…5df6backed Yes | 32c | 159$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7287…d1a3backed Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 25c | 119.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 19c | 114$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 113.11$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4225…3b42backed No | 68c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 23c | 86.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 30c | 85.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b41…3606backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 22c | 74.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 71c | 68.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…19c4backed Yes | 28c | 60.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1636…e45fbacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6222…825fbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d8…0432backed No | 68c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c0…8d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 40c | 25.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 23.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 76c | 17.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…b715backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 61-62°F on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 63-64°F on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.