Token Launches · resolved market
Official Trump above $12.50 on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1d55bcf7504ce8beee9eb5fbbd8ccc3af3c98cc9cedea6c209062c3b2e6e58b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 30c | 1,134$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.75 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 30c | 1,118$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…38a1backed Yes | 75c | 1,095$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d70…8691backed Yes | 60c | 931.16$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 58c | 771$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked No | 16c | 625.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…1fb9backed No | 23c | 383.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 18c | 321.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 60c | 318.81$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…a160backed No | 30c | 302.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…4fe4backed Yes | 79c | 283.12$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…2ef1backed No | 40c | 250.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked No | 36c | 249.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 42c | 164.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe921…f7e9backed No | 60c | 160$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…6e02backed Yes | 40c | 160$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 40c | 151.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…fa70backed Yes | 60c | 151$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 65c | 143.7$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 130.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9627…432fbacked No | 76c | 129.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…584fbacked No | 13c | 120.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 104.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…6212backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…10afbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…67a2backed Yes | 33c | 98.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +198.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 12c | 92.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…c6fdbacked Yes | 55c | 86.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0b…c2b3backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…8debbacked No | 35c | 69.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a61…0285backed Yes | 48c | 56.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 45c | 55.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7287…d1a3backed No | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879f…6306backed No | 43c | 46.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 54c | 43.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 40.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1354backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…187dbacked No | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…b1cdbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7c…5beabacked No | 52c | 31.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…067bbacked No | 76c | 31.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a2e0backed No | 44c | 27.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978b…2284backed No | 68c | 26.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd73…81bbbacked No | 76c | 23.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…c3c5backed No | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…8e72backed No | 76c | 15.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.