Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54e763a89c9fb61cafa1150cec8623545d763de582290349d58554efae1d99c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 0c | 4,677$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 47c | 3,070$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.25 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 2,110$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 1c | 1,809$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 12c | 831.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 76c | 731.91$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.57 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 50c | 512.82$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.41 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 4c | 500.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 15c | 498.45$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.18 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 47c | 453.97$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.69 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 290.95$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…1631backed Yes | 16c | 289.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.01 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 50c | 237.84$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 22c | 218.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 27c | 186$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 50c | 181.08$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.54 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 59c | 168$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 23c | 160.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.14 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 125.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 10c | 112.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes | 15c | 102.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 97.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb8…cc5bbacked Yes | 64c | 95.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 46c | 84.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 33c | 81.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 70c | 67.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 46c | 64.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed No | 59c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 27c | 49.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 50c | 48.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 38c | 42.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 48c | 41.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…86c8backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 55c | 37.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 50c | 30.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 55c | 25.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 49c | 24.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187c…8603backed Yes | 50c | 23.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 75c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3b…65f1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 70cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.