Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9a65ece91975f5d1f6eb80da62b22b72fac073aa313fd44584992aaec0eb52e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaea3…4d87backed Yes | 27c | 2,936$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.08 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 3c | 1,235$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 503.67$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.59 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 465.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 381.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 342.83$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 333.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 10c | 279.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 17c | 273.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 6c | 269.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 7c | 211.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 9c | 203.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 16c | 123.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 80c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 20c | 104.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 33c | 101.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 28c | 85.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 27c | 84.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 40c | 80.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 77.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…ddfebacked Yes | 78c | 76.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 76.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 44c | 68.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71a2…e17dbacked Yes | 77c | 64.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 69c | 49.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 48c | 44.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 65c | 38.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…da13backed No | 56c | 35.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 72c | 30.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…850abacked Yes | 79c | 25.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d7…7c87backed Yes | 79c | 20.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.