Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba1edbfd1007f9c8b537dbe30aa37f516bba762dbd7688abdad58077a29ead5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 424.63$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 45c | 338.41$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.04 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.97$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4d87backed Yes | 54c | 221.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 201$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 195.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb8…cc5bbacked Yes | 48c | 189.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 47c | 188.75$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 176.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 7c | 148.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 59c | 145.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 55c | 138.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 44c | 135.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 115.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 44c | 113.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 47c | 110.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 109.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 52c | 105.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 104.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 40c | 93.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 64c | 91.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 64c | 89.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 84.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 75.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 43c | 69.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 47c | 68.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 48c | 62.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 45c | 60.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 41c | 60.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 43c | 60.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa235…2472backed Yes | 45c | 55.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…8e5cbacked No | 37c | 53.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 55c | 52.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 46c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 41c | 50.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 33c | 49.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 47.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 44c | 45.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 44.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 41.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 41c | 38.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 37.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 59c | 36.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 36.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 43c | 34.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 43c | 34.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…bb58backed Yes | 34c | 32.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 61c | 32.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 65c | 31.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 60c | 29.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 51c | 26.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 59c | 19.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 58c | 19.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.