Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5878dabbf347a9e00abfa353c1033b93a5f725568b0d63cee5e07f494e29cd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 374.45$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.52 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 365.35$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 37c | 337.82$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 290$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 36c | 277.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab6…1475backed No | 68c | 183.39$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 181.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 176.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 64c | 175.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4d87backed Yes | 40c | 173.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 19c | 132.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…51d3backed Yes | 25c | 130.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 39c | 128.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 78c | 125$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed Yes | 38c | 123.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 115.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 104.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 62c | 95.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…894bbacked Yes | 43c | 93.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 61c | 82.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 61c | 78.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 30c | 76.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 72.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 71.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 15c | 70.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 32c | 61.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 61.03$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 34c | 59.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 32c | 58.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 20c | 55.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 64c | 54.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 49.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 74c | 41.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 40.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 71c | 39.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 63c | 38.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 40c | 37.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 71c | 35.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 71c | 35.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…c545backed No | 68c | 34.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb8…cc5bbacked Yes | 36c | 34.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 33.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 38c | 32.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 36c | 31.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked No | 63c | 30.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 67c | 29.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 69c | 29.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 61c | 26.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 60c | 24.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 24.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 63c | 23.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 18.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 72c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.