Space · resolved market
Will 7-9 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6d816c45442cb09d87c2fc16fa2ca460ad3a38c59a2ec8e31352ddc574492f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2465…2f73backed Yes | 47c | 34,654$16,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,287.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a50…f1b1backed No | 53c | 34,654$18,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,287.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231c…c5ddbacked Yes | 42c | 27,007$11,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,342.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4046…2febbacked No | 58c | 27,007$15,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,342.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 24c | 3,973$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 8c | 3,447$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 15c | 3,211$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…c557backed Yes | 17c | 1,750$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 14c | 1,410$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 825.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 10c | 613$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8c…a517backed Yes | 35c | 469.9$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 60c | 427.76$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 407.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 31c | 401.05$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…38bfbacked Yes | 36c | 396.11$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…c4fabacked Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 364.37$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.69 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 10c | 352$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +583.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddde…2e88backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 60c | 226.85$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 22c | 222.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 29cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…6a63backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd1…34d9backed Yes | 51c | 195.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750f…8c52backed Yes | 10c | 191.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ac…cf35backed Yes | 14c | 173$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…01c2backed Yes | 26c | 155.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 37c | 155$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked Yes | 38c | 149.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +99%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d9…b173backed Yes | 39c | 127.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +273%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…a551backed Yes | 16c | 126.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes | 8c | 126.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 10c | 118.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 55c | 114$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 10c | 109.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…2885backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 79c | 99.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…4c8cbacked Yes | 34c | 95.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 56c | 92.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…f5d4backed Yes | 22c | 89.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 20c | 88.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 57c | 87.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 56c | 80.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 57c | 79.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 25c | 75.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 74.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…1f3cbacked Yes | 29c | 57.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 22c | 50.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…9356backed No | 79c | 50.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +168%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…99cfbacked Yes | 46c | 43.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 44c | 39.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 62c | 33.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…eb65backed No | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 62c | 25.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d59…3067backed No | 79c | 24.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…e335backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 7-9 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?this page
- Will 10-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 13-15 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 16-18 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 19-21 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 22-24 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 25 or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?Yes won
- Will less than 4 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.