Space · resolved market
Will less than 4 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f38aae0a8492fbe49aa93931993f23f7159d89f2aa827bb2c5e78ebc21e3be8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 2c | 5,559$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +280.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dda…2839backed Yes | 3c | 3,244$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +145%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 8c | 1,678$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 1,313$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,274$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 1c | 1,271$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…38bfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,136$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8c…a517backed Yes | 5c | 923.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 917.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 872$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +172.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…32f4backed Yes | 3c | 802.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…0b5dbacked Yes | 8c | 791.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 6c | 742.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 730.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 3c | 590.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 5c | 517.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +271.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…63a3backed Yes | 6c | 273.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…9356backed Yes | 11c | 212.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…8740backed Yes | 12c | 119.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will less than 4 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?this page
- Will 10-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 13-15 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 16-18 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 19-21 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 22-24 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 25 or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?Yes won
- Will 7-9 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.