TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Space · resolved market

Will 22-24 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,555
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,555 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Space
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4fd8…af91backed Yes2c2,650$42 inLost-$41.95540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+180%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecab…6a63backed Yes3c2,608$75 inLost-$751618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-68.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes2c2,469$44 inLost-$43.522313%3 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes2c2,000$49 inLost-$48.9520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick3cpaid+280.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c806.01$12 inLost-$11.57110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f30…c8dbbacked Yes3c665.86$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes5c390.42$20 inLost-$202733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x750f…8c52backed Yes6c335.98$20 inLost-$20825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa386…a3aebacked Yes7c273.53$19 inLost-$18.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.