Space · resolved market
Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28c29d67cfc9f03e71a8fcf743718de60ffceaab2198f0b1c4dc0af9ddb87157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b9…007fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,052$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,831.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,288.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x352c…05d8backed No | 3c | 1,954$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 11c | 1,537$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +422.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed No | 23c | 1,508$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b9…a48bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 6cpaid | +1,718.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked No | 18c | 1,000$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 72c | 883.56$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.21 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 851.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d9…b173backed Yes | 6c | 800.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +273%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 7c | 753.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 2c | 659$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 641.7$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.47 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 5c | 600$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +280.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 11c | 576.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked No | 2c | 575$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…648ebacked No | 14c | 562.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 531.52$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.05 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 22c | 496.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed No | 2c | 468$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 62c | 464.95$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 23c | 456.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…38bfbacked Yes | 22c | 449.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 3c | 430.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2522…c593backed No | 2c | 428.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…28ffbacked Yes | 4c | 427.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 7c | 426.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 31c | 412.56$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +583.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dda…2839backed Yes | 20c | 390.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +145%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 6c | 383.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 7c | 363.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,398.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 3c | 353$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked Yes | 8c | 340$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +99%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 6c | 330$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 29cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed Yes | 18c | 330$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.17 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 5c | 320.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,758.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5332…3d88backed Yes | 63c | 319.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed No | 4c | 313$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…9356backed Yes | 66c | 303.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 9c | 275.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +172.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b7…d01dbacked Yes | 73c | 252.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…df3abacked Yes | 29c | 247.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…01c2backed Yes | 22c | 247.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 16c | 245.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 12c | 237.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 80c | 234.99$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 6c | 220$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +168%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…7e62backed No | 9c | 210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…b6abbacked Yes | 11c | 183.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +817.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…f13abacked Yes | 76c | 181.85$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 51c | 172.96$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…166fbacked Yes | 6c | 169.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,592%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…4c8cbacked Yes | 24c | 163.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…0f34backed No | 9c | 162.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +250.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…939abacked No | 78c | 161.02$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd1…34d9backed Yes | 47c | 160.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49cd…d6f4backed Yes | 69c | 144.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +271.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 24c | 124.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…4035backed Yes | 8c | 124.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,137.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…9e9cbacked Yes | 79c | 124$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…2a22backed No | 80c | 114.33$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…1268backed Yes | 22c | 113.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +353.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…42e0backed Yes | 69c | 98.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8e…923fbacked Yes | 62c | 97.51$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…35b1backed No | 75c | 95.64$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 77c | 89.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 65c | 85.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…6d0dbacked No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…7a93backed Yes | 66c | 64.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d59…3067backed No | 31c | 63.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…8831backed Yes | 79c | 63.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 79c | 62.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98f…6a3fbacked Yes | 69c | 60.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…1f07backed Yes | 63c | 51.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef2…bc22backed Yes | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 41c | 45.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 37c | 45.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…0b5dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…47ffbacked Yes | 77c | 45.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…acdfbacked Yes | 62c | 44.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7b…babcbacked No | 44c | 43.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b40…6ec9backed Yes | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039f…1798backed Yes | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 37c | 30.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed Yes | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 59c | 27.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…8c8ebacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddd…722dbacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2067…605dbacked No | 75c | 24.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…17e8backed No | 70c | 17.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?this page
- Will 10-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 13-15 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 16-18 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 19-21 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 22-24 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 25 or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 7-9 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will less than 4 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.