Space · resolved market
Will 10-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x712015ce8ac2c87d89bfacff5610f225c147a147441a78654846d1462921ede7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 9,105$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 12c | 2,057$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 1,765$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…c557backed Yes | 19c | 1,600$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,488$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…6a63backed Yes | 17c | 1,253$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 3c | 1,181$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 15c | 792.95$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…ee9cbacked Yes | 17c | 572.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 16c | 527.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…df3abacked Yes | 16c | 491.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 439.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 380.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 18c | 321.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 284.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…adc0backed Yes | 12c | 246.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 19c | 186.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 29cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…9afdbacked Yes | 17c | 178.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 76c | 160$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +99%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8c…a517backed Yes | 26c | 154.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…cd51backed Yes | 19c | 140.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 80c | 110.74$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…4c8cbacked Yes | 22c | 105.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…2885backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…01c2backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 18c | 59.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f1…6485backed Yes | 23c | 53.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 23c | 51.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 73c | 43.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…21e6backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 10-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?this page
- Will 13-15 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 16-18 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 19-21 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 22-24 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 25 or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?Yes won
- Will 7-9 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
- Will less than 4 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.