TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,326,859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,060,680

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,326,859 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa4a…4f22backed Yes1c235,287$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes0c117,121$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.897330.1%22 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4685…4de3backed Yes1c106,542$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes0c98,792$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.588220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes0c40,661$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9410426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefe4…1fbcbacked Yes0c30,797$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c25,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes2c24,597$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.37140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8458…17eabacked Yes0c20,522$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dcf…39e6backed Yes1c19,355$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb72…aa19backed Yes0c15,097$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-81.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f3…3dadbacked Yes0c14,080$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.24862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9057…0fa8backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c6,038$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4815615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6343…bf0abacked Yes30c6,019$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb74…bcb4backed Yes1c5,469$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+43%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4662…b73abacked Yes0c5,053$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-50.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd881…66ebbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8f6…1984backed Yes9c4,700$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-43.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1664…2babbacked Yes12c4,295$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes6c4,272$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.871051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x843b…2673backed Yes1c3,225$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+178.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes16c2,878$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.8925731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f72…0f9abacked Yes7c2,808$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes12c2,672$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.781233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82be…1d6bbacked Yes1c2,536$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51c7…2188backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes22c2,405$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00c1…dab9backed Yes8c2,355$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No74c2,273$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.543525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d7…6547backed Yes13c2,267$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.9450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes16c2,167$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.381346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked No73c2,000$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.122839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-32.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x111f…af00backed Yes13c1,934$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2451225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-46.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c1,882$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2831…c51cbacked Yes14c1,863$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb49…750ebacked Yes11c1,808$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ab…4481backed Yes4c1,749$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.23333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid-21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes7c1,728$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.39486.3%3 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x522c…48f3backed Yes5c1,613$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes6c1,583$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.916328.6%18 W · 45 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+59%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes15c1,580$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes10c1,520$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.032913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6442…2163backed Yes19c1,511$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee69…05d0backed Yes1c1,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+72.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes13c1,420$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.712416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-70%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x270a…c70ebacked Yes1c1,368$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01fb…ae3ebacked No51c1,368$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c4…812fbacked No79c1,280$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f84…9958backed Yes1c1,274$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7667…39a4backed Yes3c1,237$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes11c1,235$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.334020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7761…532fbacked Yes2c1,159$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa67…eb94backed Yes16c1,079$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdc4…57f2backed Yes9c1,054$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9660…a809backed Yes20c1,008$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df0…a488backed Yes13c1,008$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0eda…fff0backed Yes20c1,002$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe65f…a749backed Yes5c1,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked No50c987.88$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.77742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes11c936.09$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.793652.8%19 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+23.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes6c930.41$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.614226.2%11 W · 31 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c63…ab50backed Yes11c923$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+49.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ebf…a807backed Yes16c890$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa73f…c5efbacked Yes4c873.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes21c869.22$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd173…9be6backed Yes19c853.83$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes15c807.42$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.131926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dcc…4820backed Yes14c732.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x023f…c142backed Yes5c732.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ea…cb98backed Yes21c723.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c720.78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.257426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x326a…c3dabacked Yes14c709.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes13c706.04$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes14c704.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x410a…63edbacked Yes3c698.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2360%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78b2…26abbacked Yes4c660.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf982…1c15backed Yes49c658$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eac…0c9ebacked Yes15c656.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x113d…e766backed Yes4c642.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes58c629.99$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.498543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0deb…9b0fbacked Yes53c600$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9798…01e0backed Yes9c581.92$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x595b…efefbacked Yes5c572.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f19…d4f3backed Yes16c560$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes5c545.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.331735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-44.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdd47…4563backed Yes5c544.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ddf…98f0backed Yes4c540.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes24c540.1$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.831533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd81…634bbacked Yes2c534.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes49c533.27$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.863935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x316c…a68abacked Yes17c530.82$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c90…d4a4backed Yes3c517.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551a…86b9backed No69c501.56$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.163100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+98.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c501.45$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.561,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92e5…d129backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402259.1%13 W · 9 L+4.8wins+0.22per pick37cpaid+78.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b02…393ebacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc43b…784dbacked Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.