AI · resolved market
Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x599bf70ef14cb90b4b3663b9d4617da998aa6fc542056957ba1a7862eeea341e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,326,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,060,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,326,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa4a…4f22backed Yes | 1c | 235,287$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 0c | 117,121$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.89 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…4de3backed Yes | 1c | 106,542$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 0c | 98,792$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.58 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 0c | 40,661$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe4…1fbcbacked Yes | 0c | 30,797$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes | 2c | 24,597$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.37 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8458…17eabacked Yes | 0c | 20,522$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcf…39e6backed Yes | 1c | 19,355$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb72…aa19backed Yes | 0c | 15,097$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked Yes | 0c | 14,080$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…0fa8backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 6,038$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6343…bf0abacked Yes | 30c | 6,019$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…bcb4backed Yes | 1c | 5,469$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…b73abacked Yes | 0c | 5,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…66ebbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…1984backed Yes | 9c | 4,700$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1664…2babbacked Yes | 12c | 4,295$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 4,272$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.87 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Yes | 1c | 3,225$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +178.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 2,878$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.89 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…0f9abacked Yes | 7c | 2,808$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 12c | 2,672$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…1d6bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,536$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…2188backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 22c | 2,405$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c1…dab9backed Yes | 8c | 2,355$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 74c | 2,273$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.54 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…6547backed Yes | 13c | 2,267$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 16c | 2,167$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 73c | 2,000$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.12 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 13c | 1,934$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,882$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…c51cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,863$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…750ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,808$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ab…4481backed Yes | 4c | 1,749$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,728$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x522c…48f3backed Yes | 5c | 1,613$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 6c | 1,583$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 15c | 1,580$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 1,520$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.03 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…2163backed Yes | 19c | 1,511$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 13c | 1,420$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.71 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…c70ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,368$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…ae3ebacked No | 51c | 1,368$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…812fbacked No | 79c | 1,280$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f84…9958backed Yes | 1c | 1,274$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…39a4backed Yes | 3c | 1,237$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 11c | 1,235$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.33 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…532fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,159$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…eb94backed Yes | 16c | 1,079$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…57f2backed Yes | 9c | 1,054$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…a809backed Yes | 20c | 1,008$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…a488backed Yes | 13c | 1,008$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eda…fff0backed Yes | 20c | 1,002$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 50c | 987.88$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 11c | 936.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 6c | 930.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c63…ab50backed Yes | 11c | 923$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebf…a807backed Yes | 16c | 890$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73f…c5efbacked Yes | 4c | 873.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 21c | 869.22$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…9be6backed Yes | 19c | 853.83$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 15c | 807.42$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.13 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcc…4820backed Yes | 14c | 732.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023f…c142backed Yes | 5c | 732.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ea…cb98backed Yes | 21c | 723.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 720.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…c3dabacked Yes | 14c | 709.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 13c | 706.04$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 14c | 704.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…63edbacked Yes | 3c | 698.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…26abbacked Yes | 4c | 660.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf982…1c15backed Yes | 49c | 658$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eac…0c9ebacked Yes | 15c | 656.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113d…e766backed Yes | 4c | 642.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 58c | 629.99$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.49 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…9b0fbacked Yes | 53c | 600$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9798…01e0backed Yes | 9c | 581.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595b…efefbacked Yes | 5c | 572.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…d4f3backed Yes | 16c | 560$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 5c | 545.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd47…4563backed Yes | 5c | 544.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…98f0backed Yes | 4c | 540.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 24c | 540.1$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd81…634bbacked Yes | 2c | 534.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 49c | 533.27$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.86 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x316c…a68abacked Yes | 17c | 530.82$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c90…d4a4backed Yes | 3c | 517.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…86b9backed No | 69c | 501.56$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 501.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…d129backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43b…784dbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more? this page
- Will iPhone 17 cost $1,500 or more? No won
- Will iPhone 17 cost $2,000 or more? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.