AI · resolved market
Will iPhone 17 cost $1,500 or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e8a20aa06f5913e9efda697f16b9525b70ce1f720851e8f1a13bd46072a6126
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $955,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $955,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $955,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 0c | 98,777$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 0c | 78,132$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.13 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 0c | 66,631$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.26 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 58,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 0c | 49,022$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 35,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816c…c4fabacked Yes | 0c | 20,823$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1239…493cbacked Yes | 0c | 13,795$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ff…432dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 9,143$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.35 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…53c3backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb72…aa19backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c1…dab9backed Yes | 3c | 3,624$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…57f2backed Yes | 3c | 3,464$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 3c | 2,993$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,835$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…dae8backed Yes | 2c | 2,031$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 2c | 1,796$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…26abbacked Yes | 2c | 1,563$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…63edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,425$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53e…6321backed Yes | 3c | 1,244$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf2…d6f2backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 989.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…9be6backed Yes | 4c | 936.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…6547backed Yes | 2c | 833$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 558.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f79…fa7fbacked Yes | 4c | 459.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x679e…66d1backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 7c | 323.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef70…339fbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 276.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 276.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…672abacked Yes | 4c | 276$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 6c | 271.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked Yes | 5c | 251$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes | 9c | 183$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will iPhone 17 cost $1,500 or more? this page
- Will iPhone 17 cost $1,000 or more? No won
- Will iPhone 17 cost $2,000 or more? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.