Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc5aee5d99706010c09d13e1e1f3383b248054619bdd72b86083b082b5058ccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 0c | 3,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 15c | 404$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 24c | 215.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 19c | 119.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 64c | 72.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 40c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +9.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c17…e799backed Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…ba9fbacked No | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 70c | 41.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x317e…2d8dbacked Yes | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…0488backed No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…221abacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd7…5641backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…cfdfbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c96…0e03backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdf…a4eabacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7c…20ecbacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b7…1f61backed No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…cf17backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded0…7989backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708b…2e9fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…efd2backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on February 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 46°F or higher on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.