Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd344a9df889cd1e6a4908ea053869507daddca91e362686fb3909a108b31573a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4403…e414backed Yes | 1c | 10,416$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…5e48backed Yes | 1c | 1,212$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 47c | 638.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.77 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 47c | 419.34$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…23dabacked Yes | 79c | 380.31$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 58c | 353.93$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.99 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 73c | 341.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.7 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 49c | 323.24$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 70c | 286.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 15c | 265$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 57c | 229.98$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 44c | 191$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 124$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 20c | 105.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked No | 34c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 63c | 71.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 42c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 74c | 53.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 53c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 54c | 47.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2178backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 47c | 23.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…6b49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…e563backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 55c | 18.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…64f1backed Yes | 69c | 15.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on February 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.