Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff46383a899b29bf5972aa92dfcb180200e1eb0da7eec2298cf34c8c7c8a553c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $242,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa068…6b89backed Yes | 39c | 115,000$44,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,850 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd122…4e82backed No | 61c | 115,000$70,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,850 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 3c | 719.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 499.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 9c | 343.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 21c | 197.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adb…5a9bbacked Yes | 27c | 189$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked No | 79c | 127.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a82…6817backed No | 73c | 125$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 37c | 90.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 74c | 86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…f88dbacked No | 73c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +407.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 48.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…d151backed Yes | 36c | 38.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 67c | 37.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 44c | 33.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5da…c4a7backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc43…bf16backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x697a…35e8backed No | 67c | 21.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…4fcdbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1366backed No | 68c | 19.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf571…24b6backed No | 68c | 14.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on February 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.