Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc59ccb90cad2254d30bf684d07283980540cb23304df60124e7a4f8372cee830
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 42c | 1,037$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.59 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,003$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 68c | 947.13$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.8 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 36c | 910.74$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.8 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3810…272abacked Yes | 5c | 569.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 41c | 536.1$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 255.51$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked No | 68c | 184.69$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 32c | 161.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked Yes | 29c | 150.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 60c | 140.14$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 21c | 130.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed No | 50c | 120.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb548…9963backed Yes | 48c | 111$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 42c | 102.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 12c | 99.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked No | 72c | 93.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 50c | 81.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…64f1backed Yes | 17c | 76.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 37c | 64.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 40c | 62.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 50c | 59.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 54c | 58.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 63c | 38.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…9917backed Yes | 48c | 35.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…5c87backed Yes | 41c | 31.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859e…43c9backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on February 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.