Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd440685777bf7146409a916408e3e83a78c886c74c46e733d44958a756847b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 58c | 2,555$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.24 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 56c | 2,443$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.73 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 50c | 1,527$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.81 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…abf1backed No | 72c | 1,411$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked No | 1c | 1,369$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 1,189$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 45c | 927.95$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.07 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 68c | 470.56$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.56 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 12c | 357.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.42 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…7dd2backed No | 32c | 355.42$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 66c | 335.79$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.63 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked Yes | 75c | 309.78$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.15 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 56c | 286.79$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 55c | 267.25$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.31 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed No | 68c | 252.03$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.87 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 74c | 229.77$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 45c | 212.56$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.49 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1416…c996backed No | 48c | 194.36$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 60c | 146.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed No | 70c | 142.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 20c | 141.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.44 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 40c | 128.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 128.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 40c | 122.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked No | 67c | 116.84$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 66c | 108.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 29c | 86.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 20c | 85.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…23dabacked Yes | 58c | 70.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 67c | 60.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe862…7d6bbacked Yes | 71c | 54.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed No | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc48…0a25backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…0bd5backed Yes | 65c | 24.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 55c | 23.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x274d…7a44backed No | 64c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc052…69e2backed Yes | 76c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 38-39°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.