Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4168b13e159502ae5dc8beb28caab73852b9b94b27314740ac7d74e42b11e265
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 18c | 2,060$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 40c | 1,746$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.46 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bad…cc4cbacked Yes | 56c | 1,194$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 55c | 978.17$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 56c | 534.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 24c | 502.56$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2f…067bbacked Yes | 35c | 483.81$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabd0…0619backed Yes | 21c | 401$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 76c | 395$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 23c | 365.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…6a63backed Yes | 5c | 293.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 64c | 284.79$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 13c | 284.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 281.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 39c | 280.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 19c | 263.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 28c | 220$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…3808backed Yes | 54c | 184.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…1576backed No | 68c | 151.67$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Yes | 19c | 144.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 66c | 131.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…d056backed Yes | 42c | 127.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 65c | 114$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…589cbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 83.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 70c | 78.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +99%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b6…e417backed Yes | 32c | 70.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 70c | 67.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 25c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 34c | 57.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 56c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed Yes | 25c | 49.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 67c | 43.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…6c42backed Yes | 33c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…7b4cbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…cd10backed No | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…9356backed No | 59c | 33.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…96afbacked No | 72c | 33.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…71a5backed No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed No | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…21e6backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 79c | 16.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 1?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 22?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 10?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.