Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ef1e8fd7b8a8ef1d5169fc5fe6e0fef7344fcbfdd16da45a136a89b4627c46f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,338$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 30c | 845.54$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 18c | 841.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 74c | 711.13$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed No | 57c | 691.12$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.78 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 78c | 677.35$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4f…7e2bbacked Yes | 35c | 656.7$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed Yes | 40c | 533.57$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 512.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 431.73$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 59c | 337.67$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.29 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes | 31c | 325.63$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3d…8966backed Yes | 21c | 302.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 284.34$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 44c | 223$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…7b93backed No | 75c | 200.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 192.85$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 56c | 177$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 24c | 160$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 60c | 149.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 64c | 148.44$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 18c | 141$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e85…766cbacked No | 72c | 139.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 72c | 136.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 33c | 112.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 108$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…ee9cbacked Yes | 37c | 106.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 63c | 85.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 26c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…90a6backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 34c | 67.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 20c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…641cbacked No | 76c | 47.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc216…b083backed Yes | 33c | 46.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed No | 69c | 39.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b7…d01dbacked No | 61c | 32.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 64c | 26.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45a3…12f0backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a87…4ee0backed No | 71c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by June 30?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 1?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 22?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 10?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 20?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.