Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x883984f2b8026db09ede26a19157d36e0c8f0a188737211e7196f027ccd971eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 6,169$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 19c | 1,237$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 67c | 1,199$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.78 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 35c | 727.12$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5816…3c5abacked Yes | 2c | 611.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc00f…1ef1backed Yes | 2c | 539.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 502$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…32f4backed No | 28c | 478.01$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 66c | 458.15$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 54c | 455.96$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.97 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 422.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…5f66backed No | 46c | 280$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 33c | 203.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…ee9cbacked Yes | 76c | 201.62$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 25c | 200$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 160.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked No | 78c | 147.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 20c | 147$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 24c | 114.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 63c | 109.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 61c | 107.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed Yes | 65c | 107$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 53c | 82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 78c | 81.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15bf…1848backed No | 23c | 79.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 21c | 57.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…641cbacked No | 39c | 51.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 63c | 44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ac…cf35backed No | 43c | 35.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 52c | 34.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 58c | 22.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed Yes | 75c | 21.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 67c | 21.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…d68dbacked No | 79c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 10?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 1?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 22?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.