Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc711c138b5a5dedd6d046942fd5c1e8ea6a9adb19c9798770e959589e2f33f27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 21c | 1,442$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…36b0backed No | 45c | 663.53$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 68c | 575.97$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 67c | 512.05$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 24c | 307.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 64c | 280$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…a16abacked No | 40c | 252.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Yes | 65c | 190$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…5657backed No | 38c | 181.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…000dbacked No | 36c | 170$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 58c | 128.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 105$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…6b43backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92dd…5c0dbacked No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 68c | 41.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes | 57c | 31.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 27?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 1?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 22?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 10?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.