TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Space · resolved market

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$169,421
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$175,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,421 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Space
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x508f…9df2backed Yes51c37,486$19,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,368.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bed…c932backed No49c37,486$18,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,368.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No54c7,335$3,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,966.942839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+70.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed Yes62c6,855$4,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,620.293100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+112.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecab…6a63backed No52c4,989$2,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,604.791618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-68.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a2…0f38backed No33c4,566$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes78c4,004$3,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No30c3,968$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed No14c2,900$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa3d…8966backed Yes56c2,343$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.021250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed No41c2,338$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-58.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No17c2,000$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33460%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No11c1,998$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes71c1,876$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No30c1,782$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.22933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e03…dd32backed No45c1,618$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.57540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes50c1,515$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.031464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.25per pick40cpaid+47.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5bad…cc4cbacked Yes49c1,282$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942b…e25ebacked Yes48c1,264$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.19540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No27c1,234$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.68683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+54.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes46c1,102$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.164100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…4ea5backed No2c1,071$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No24c1,052$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No44c948.99$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.941540%6 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes43c843.48$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.481855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No20c700$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca6…1211backed No51c664.13$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No18c648.07$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.111513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No18c644.11$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.963910.3%4 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed No50c600.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.231020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15a9…6b43backed No38c599.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd71a…dbd9backed Yes56c537.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.92580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa757…96cfbacked No68c485.44$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed Yes36c458.81$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.811450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x425b…e1fdbacked Yes54c457.21$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed Yes63c451.39$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No55c426.4$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2331656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+62.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes50c422.22$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2122100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+66.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes48c404.6$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.831275%9 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+88.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-69.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked No50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa591…9079backed Yes41c396.02$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+68.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed No23c393.51$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd89d…d6b7backed No76c391.98$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3753…dc42backed Yes49c378.16$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08e5…5d30backed Yes60c368$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27b8…b68cbacked No30c325.33$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes26c303.54$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+174.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No17c270.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Yes75c264.97$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x305e…d8dcbacked Yes45c250$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No50c223$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.52733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes47c219.45$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.464100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+125.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x29e0…830bbacked Yes47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes51c188.82$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.73425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x418f…1f17backed Yes53c187.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No39c183.24$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.38560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f36…9d7cbacked Yes48c165.76$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe878…2143backed Yes62c162.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed No55c160.45$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.64742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No49c160$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No29c156.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.971637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe99c…aff1backed Yes48c149.69$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a26…915dbacked Yes52c147.29$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes51c138.89$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682313%3 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1bb…9f87backed Yes49c138.78$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e15…6ce6backed Yes60c138.22$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.75450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked No24c135.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76fb…c306backed No14c119.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-64.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No54c118.24$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7512…0f34backed Yes15c117$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick17cpaid+250.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No23c111.39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.891127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No51c111$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.61540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…efa8backed Yes62c106.36$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.43475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes39c104.55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+101.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a43…2f2abacked Yes48c104.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9596…245ebacked No53c101.08$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No44c94.71$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-54.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x878c…c12abacked No43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76d4…4c8cbacked Yes34c82.36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.44837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a86…c097backed Yes61c75$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f76…b11fbacked Yes42c71.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+137.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebb4…1576backed Yes38c66.97$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.364100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+86%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x788d…99bbbacked Yes75c66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d55…cd90backed Yes42c62.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43fd…01cfbacked No34c58.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eda…17d1backed No57c56.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes40c51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.78475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+73.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8fa…4375backed Yes74c50.69$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4083…363fbacked No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9e7…b56dbacked Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes50c49.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+33%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.