TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Space · resolved market

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$94,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Space
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No1c5,401$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6760%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…dc2abacked No30c4,821$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0355…4c8cbacked No23c4,585$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes73c2,995$2,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed No14c2,858$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.42520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-64%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No33c2,816$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.131353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No11c2,781$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.691225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed No45c1,756$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-58.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No9c1,717$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.18933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x244b…d87fbacked Yes79c1,404$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.88450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes46c1,353$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.631030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed Yes74c1,316$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8659…568fbacked No8c1,271$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes75c1,260$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.01683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+54.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes77c1,202$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x101c…4392backed No9c1,159$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes76c1,065$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+66.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No10c1,061$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.821637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No10c999.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed Yes77c957.86$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.621450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…c734backed No14c950.89$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes71c944.42$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.95580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+38.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No58c876.4$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.42839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+70.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd0…8a9abacked No24c832.2$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No11c751.22$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked No7c672.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb05…9c30backed No9c665.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-44.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b0…000dbacked No11c592.04$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed Yes75c563.42$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.94560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No7c440.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed No6c420.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No8c420$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.893910.3%4 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cad…7c1fbacked No24c419.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed Yes73c418.59$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-54.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xface…0572backed Yes52c407.93$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76fb…c306backed No59c406$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.02825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-64.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes59c403.97$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.051758.8%10 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.27per pick32cpaid+76.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1797…baa7backed Yes79c400$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6380…e74fbacked No10c390$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x990d…5463backed No16c389.39$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e5…5d30backed Yes80c388.56$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.943100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b0…6980backed No12c381.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeca6…1211backed No17c369.01$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.98540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No9c360$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked No20c356.23$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5020…215fbacked Yes62c355.42$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d9…9b09backed No6c341.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5782…a16abacked No8c313.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-66.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No9c299.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0960%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x942b…e25ebacked No25c296.29$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.34540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No8c284.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.05714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe577…6c42backed Yes75c284$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa3d…8966backed Yes73c273.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.851250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes45c269$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb3f…313bbacked No8c254.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d1…7bb1backed No8c251.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No14c245.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.261526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-53.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa26b…a653backed No17c242.5$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a87…4ee0backed No28c237.87$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes78c219.03$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0d8…38f7backed No11c200.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…ac16backed No6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed Yes72c199.97$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No30c191.32$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.581513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes11c188.27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No53c183.04$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf49d…b6bebacked No35c182.12$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed No8c178.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes65c176.48$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.931656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+62.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes44c173$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked No12c171.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8638…5a23backed No10c170$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes77c169.29$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.494100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17c6…9139backed Yes52c168.16$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes63c159.08$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.63450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda58…b6f1backed Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a6…86b7backed Yes62c141.92$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f1…a3b9backed Yes39c141.14$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe58c…216bbacked Yes72c138.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa581…45b2backed Yes72c136.39$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a3e…ddbabacked Yes78c130$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes77c124.85$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.233100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…589cbacked Yes67c122.34$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-24.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No21c120.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes53c116.79$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.16520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15bf…1848backed No17c115.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.14540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+50.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes53c105$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+149.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f0c…55a2backed No13c101.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26c0…8132backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec68…a36fbacked No12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5674…15c2backed No50c99.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7168…e537backed No22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebb4…1576backed Yes71c85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.054100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+86%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49cd…d6f4backed No26c80.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.04250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No19c77.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.78475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+73.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes72c76.5$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.15450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe662…c372backed Yes79c75$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes73c74$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.92313%3 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-77.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No20c72.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.574235.7%15 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.