Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13fbe74b587f3b606a3d25b6879ee3dcccf89a8c36bf14b62c72a131c6e26ec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 1c | 5,401$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…dc2abacked No | 30c | 4,821$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked No | 23c | 4,585$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes | 73c | 2,995$2,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 14c | 2,858$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 33c | 2,816$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.13 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 11c | 2,781$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.69 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 45c | 1,756$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 9c | 1,717$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…d87fbacked Yes | 79c | 1,404$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 46c | 1,353$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 74c | 1,316$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8659…568fbacked No | 8c | 1,271$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 75c | 1,260$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.01 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 77c | 1,202$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed No | 9c | 1,159$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed Yes | 76c | 1,065$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 10c | 1,061$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 10c | 999.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 77c | 957.86$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…c734backed No | 14c | 950.89$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 71c | 944.42$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 58c | 876.4$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.4 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…8a9abacked No | 24c | 832.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 11c | 751.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked No | 7c | 672.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb05…9c30backed No | 9c | 665.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…000dbacked No | 11c | 592.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 75c | 563.42$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 440.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed No | 6c | 420.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 420$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked No | 24c | 419.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed Yes | 73c | 418.59$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xface…0572backed Yes | 52c | 407.93$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed No | 59c | 406$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 59c | 403.97$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.05 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 32cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed Yes | 79c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked No | 10c | 390$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990d…5463backed No | 16c | 389.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e5…5d30backed Yes | 80c | 388.56$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…6980backed No | 12c | 381.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…1211backed No | 17c | 369.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 9c | 360$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 20c | 356.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…215fbacked Yes | 62c | 355.42$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d9…9b09backed No | 6c | 341.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…a16abacked No | 8c | 313.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked No | 25c | 296.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 8c | 284.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…6c42backed Yes | 75c | 284$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3d…8966backed Yes | 73c | 273.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 45c | 269$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…313bbacked No | 8c | 254.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d1…7bb1backed No | 8c | 251.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 14c | 245.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26b…a653backed No | 17c | 242.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a87…4ee0backed No | 28c | 237.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes | 78c | 219.03$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…38f7backed No | 11c | 200.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…ac16backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 72c | 199.97$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 30c | 191.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 11c | 188.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 53c | 183.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…b6bebacked No | 35c | 182.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 8c | 178.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 65c | 176.48$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 44c | 173$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 12c | 171.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…5a23backed No | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 77c | 169.29$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17c6…9139backed Yes | 52c | 168.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 63c | 159.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…b6f1backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a6…86b7backed Yes | 62c | 141.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…a3b9backed Yes | 39c | 141.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58c…216bbacked Yes | 72c | 138.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 72c | 136.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3e…ddbabacked Yes | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 77c | 124.85$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…589cbacked Yes | 67c | 122.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 21c | 120.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 53c | 116.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bf…1848backed No | 17c | 115.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0c…55a2backed No | 13c | 101.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c0…8132backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…a36fbacked No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…15c2backed No | 50c | 99.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…1576backed Yes | 71c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49cd…d6f4backed No | 26c | 80.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 19c | 77.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 72c | 76.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe662…c372backed Yes | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 73c | 74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 72.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 1?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 22?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 10?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.