Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a632bae8dbcf0d5c84a98f19a26c868093d26f045950210b2a391993bb4a3f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x338b…dc2abacked No | 49c | 4,623$2,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,373.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 5c | 2,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 75c | 2,229$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,300$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 29c | 1,060$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +123%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 70c | 974.45$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 46c | 949.6$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes | 57c | 900.25$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 17c | 822$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe662…c372backed Yes | 58c | 802.33$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 53c | 800.32$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 17c | 800.08$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…bf6ebacked Yes | 72c | 625.58$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 22c | 505.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…6b43backed Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 49c | 441.61$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 56c | 410.48$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed Yes | 60c | 400$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 52c | 346.82$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 47c | 344.2$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.97 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3d…8966backed Yes | 50c | 248.25$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed Yes | 44c | 200.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e0…830bbacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacc…396ebacked Yes | 72c | 175.62$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3446…9f89backed Yes | 59c | 168.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 52c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…6ce6backed Yes | 63c | 149.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 45c | 136.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…1a0cbacked Yes | 55c | 134.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…d56fbacked Yes | 52c | 126.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 124$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 53c | 113.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6874…5a96backed No | 36c | 110$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…0666backed Yes | 72c | 108.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 53c | 102.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe6…13d6backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 51c | 97.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…6ddcbacked Yes | 43c | 88.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 70c | 85.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…c83dbacked Yes | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…82b1backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ab…d689backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…1211backed No | 49c | 47.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…ec7abacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…ad8fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…76b7backed Yes | 58c | 39.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…47ffbacked Yes | 56c | 38.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c4…c28dbacked No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa28b…4081backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…51a3backed Yes | 40c | 31.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddd…8e9bbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 50c | 20.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb7…1c9cbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 1?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 22?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 10?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.