Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa50032d3289df56118a00be33f4f2b3c5ec01b5c02fd2ff637b6924b0ae1e647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96d4…9cd5backed No | 58c | 31,365$18,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,191.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e305backed Yes | 42c | 31,365$13,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,191.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 80c | 15,113$12,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,051.97 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 1c | 5,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…6b43backed No | 15c | 4,500$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…a67ebacked No | 17c | 3,156$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e0…830bbacked No | 18c | 2,822$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bad…cc4cbacked Yes | 73c | 2,042$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…01cfbacked No | 14c | 1,276$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 76c | 1,163$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked No | 1c | 1,150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 35c | 1,141$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.33 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 12c | 1,074$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…9e5cbacked No | 20c | 1,002$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked No | 41c | 978.03$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…d056backed Yes | 69c | 965.29$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 69c | 962.22$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes | 76c | 934.06$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed No | 66c | 909.74$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…4628backed No | 23c | 819.35$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 14c | 819$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe878…2143backed No | 68c | 732.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 16c | 700$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 49c | 604$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 62c | 598.95$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45e…16c5backed No | 66c | 534.14$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…83f6backed No | 19c | 522.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 10c | 499$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…96afbacked No | 15c | 478$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe0…4c7bbacked Yes | 40c | 465.86$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.83 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 54c | 461.42$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked No | 62c | 450.31$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7c1fbacked No | 22c | 449.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…aff1backed No | 18c | 421.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 41c | 400.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked No | 16c | 400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 15c | 386.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +172.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed No | 34c | 380$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 26c | 360.23$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 13c | 332$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…ac6bbacked No | 16c | 318.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 47c | 317.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4482…7082backed No | 32c | 316.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…1211backed No | 29c | 316.72$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed No | 20c | 309.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…6a63backed No | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e5…5d30backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed No | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed No | 15c | 273.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3d…8966backed No | 78c | 257.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8e…cfc6backed No | 39c | 254.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…1147backed No | 31c | 251.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 251.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 247.96$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 56c | 244.69$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.24 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 18c | 236.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…915dbacked No | 41c | 232$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f52…b424backed No | 17c | 208.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30b…3c30backed No | 17c | 205.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 41c | 203$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…dd32backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…563bbacked No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…313bbacked No | 11c | 186.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 78c | 185.67$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3124…014bbacked Yes | 56c | 184$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbc…96a6backed No | 31c | 163.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…79dcbacked No | 10c | 162.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 71c | 160.16$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 62c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5d…362fbacked No | 78c | 136.11$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed No | 16c | 135.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed No | 16c | 132.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 27c | 132$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked No | 20c | 125.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…a4f5backed No | 26c | 113.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 64c | 112.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848e…86dcbacked No | 67c | 112.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 56c | 111.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ae…4462backed No | 37c | 106.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed No | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…d87fbacked Yes | 59c | 103.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…c097backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c10…336cbacked No | 29c | 96.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…2881backed No | 27c | 95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 93.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 78c | 93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…1f17backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c8…0b69backed No | 14c | 83.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 24c | 82.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 40c | 80.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked No | 33c | 80.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 16c | 80.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 1?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 22?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 10?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.