Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c49f6102ce2d541faab55f4465a5364f28b0e476e8694af23caa28b4b1e2960
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 48c | 4,661$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,417.15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 58c | 1,565$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed Yes | 55c | 1,522$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…d452backed Yes | 51c | 1,200$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2f…067bbacked Yes | 75c | 1,011$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 42c | 975$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…dbbcbacked Yes | 79c | 683.23$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a74…b263backed Yes | 50c | 586$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdb…5ae8backed No | 22c | 563.53$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +231%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked No | 40c | 556.92$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…cd10backed Yes | 68c | 500.88$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 79c | 308.31$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 59c | 273.59$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 31c | 262.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +123%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed No | 37c | 256.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…f2f9backed Yes | 64c | 219.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 30c | 201$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6874…5a96backed No | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked No | 34c | 152.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed No | 31c | 149.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…cdacbacked No | 34c | 140$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +190.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 37c | 137.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 56c | 136.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes | 75c | 133.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked No | 40c | 127.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 20c | 112.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…bf6ebacked Yes | 46c | 107$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed No | 26c | 91.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +279.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…efa8backed Yes | 68c | 80.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a5…e400backed No | 38c | 71.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…f1c6backed Yes | 67c | 69.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed No | 71c | 56.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…948dbacked Yes | 61c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…0f34backed No | 26c | 53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +250.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 44c | 43.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…ac16backed Yes | 79c | 40.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…6980backed Yes | 72c | 34.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…83f6backed Yes | 70c | 34.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0de…443bbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…0db0backed No | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…aff1backed Yes | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb7…1c9cbacked Yes | 55c | 26.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 65c | 21.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc382…942dbacked Yes | 77c | 20.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…806bbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8362…bb7cbacked Yes | 77c | 17.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd16c…9100backed Yes | 77c | 14.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 1?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 22?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 10?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.