Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd39c7d1e69ebc9d7fb7ae71d93dd97ce5c3b47f2a427132f1876b78620330dd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 57c | 2,238$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.57 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…cd10backed Yes | 40c | 1,616$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked Yes | 41c | 1,500$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…36b0backed Yes | 54c | 1,297$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 68c | 1,101$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes | 58c | 999.99$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b0…000dbacked No | 53c | 974.42$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 43c | 967.62$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 54c | 966.76$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…dc42backed No | 41c | 840.71$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 52c | 827.88$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 72c | 793.19$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…a16abacked No | 28c | 715.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 32c | 709.74$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked No | 35c | 674.33$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…d056backed Yes | 56c | 646.65$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked No | 47c | 635.09$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes | 62c | 631.68$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 36c | 569.43$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8659…568fbacked Yes | 73c | 568.6$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 53c | 558.91$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…1211backed Yes | 63c | 533.63$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed No | 65c | 520.35$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed No | 37c | 499.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 43c | 482.28$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 39c | 457.22$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788d…99bbbacked Yes | 66c | 417.16$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 65c | 411.32$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed Yes | 64c | 380.75$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 297.6$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.35 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…1904backed No | 42c | 285.71$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…55c3backed No | 53c | 285$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 56c | 256.82$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 17c | 255.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +123%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe662…c372backed No | 40c | 238.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaf…5631backed No | 44c | 227.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a4…1ba5backed No | 49c | 216.28$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 52c | 204.54$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 38c | 203.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…a045backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6874…5a96backed No | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…12d4backed Yes | 55c | 180.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…856ebacked No | 46c | 167.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 57c | 165.25$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…6ce6backed Yes | 53c | 153.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…efa8backed Yes | 77c | 153.16$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 142.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x949b…1034backed No | 45c | 137.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…e630backed Yes | 55c | 137.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8690…46f7backed Yes | 65c | 123.32$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdb…5ae8backed Yes | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +231%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 52c | 100.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 51c | 100.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…a67ebacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…6b43backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eda…17d1backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes | 51c | 99.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…dd32backed Yes | 64c | 92.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked Yes | 47c | 80.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 73c | 79.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 54c | 76.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ee…cf2cbacked No | 48c | 73.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…c734backed Yes | 69c | 72.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…e1fdbacked Yes | 70c | 71.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a42…ee8abacked Yes | 28c | 70.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +254.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097d…83f6backed No | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a8…71f1backed No | 41c | 60.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 59c | 57.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 49c | 56.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0340…f4d0backed Yes | 58c | 55.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Yes | 57c | 53.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 47c | 50.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…bb12backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 42c | 49.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006f…6b0abacked No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403e…7acabacked No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fb…2101backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc9…55adbacked No | 76c | 44.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…29fdbacked Yes | 54c | 43.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…ce39backed Yes | 54c | 42.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…dce4backed No | 50c | 42.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…86debacked No | 58c | 41.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed No | 75c | 40.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +174.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…a4f5backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…fce1backed No | 60c | 36.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…d5f4backed Yes | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…bf6ebacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8c…0c58backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed Yes | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…87c3backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 1?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 22?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 24?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 10?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by July 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy booster?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.