TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Space · resolved market

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,300
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,300 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Space
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x477a…2d8ebacked No57c2,238$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.572839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+70.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad86…cd10backed Yes40c1,616$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.79560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x991b…f19abacked Yes41c1,500$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+50.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12e2…36b0backed Yes54c1,297$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.13250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed No68c1,101$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-58.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…61bcbacked No45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes58c999.99$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4202100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b0…000dbacked No53c974.42$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.3130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes43c967.62$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.85580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+38.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes54c966.76$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3753…dc42backed No41c840.71$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed No52c827.88$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes72c793.19$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5782…a16abacked No28c715.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-66.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed Yes32c709.74$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.41450%7 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked No35c674.33$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbad…d056backed Yes56c646.65$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa40…8b4fbacked No47c635.09$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes62c631.68$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No36c569.43$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.451225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8659…568fbacked Yes73c568.6$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes53c558.91$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.674100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+83.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeca6…1211backed Yes63c533.63$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.74540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed No65c520.35$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed Yes53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe65f…a749backed No37c499.99$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes43c482.28$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.2683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+54.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed No39c457.22$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x788d…99bbbacked Yes66c417.16$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes65c411.32$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.864100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3896…ece6backed Yes64c380.75$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes39c297.6$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.353910.3%4 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x413c…1904backed No42c285.71$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c2…55c3backed No53c285$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf59d…bb41backed No56c256.82$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed No17c255.43$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+123%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe662…c372backed No40c238.67$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeaf…5631backed No44c227.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39a4…1ba5backed No49c216.28$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes52c204.54$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-53.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes38c203.95$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.93714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a50…a045backed Yes48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6874…5a96backed No22c200$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+151.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0954…12d4backed Yes55c180.2$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked No46c167.95$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes57c165.25$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.691464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.25per pick40cpaid+47.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6e15…6ce6backed Yes53c153.7$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.65450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36bf…efa8backed Yes77c153.16$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.77475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes61c142.47$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.634235.7%15 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x949b…1034backed No45c137.44$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7120…e630backed Yes55c137.44$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8690…46f7backed Yes65c123.32$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+88.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcdb…5ae8backed Yes48c120$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+231%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes52c100.32$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No51c100.08$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.941540%6 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x234b…a67ebacked No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15a9…6b43backed No40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5dd…7564backed No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcbf…4ffabacked No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eda…17d1backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc282…0c5fbacked Yes51c99.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.924100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+125.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e03…dd32backed Yes64c92.18$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.18540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d33…91adbacked Yes47c80.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes73c79.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes54c76.2$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.073100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+180.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ee…cf2cbacked No48c73.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1677…c734backed Yes69c72.22$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x425b…e1fdbacked Yes70c71.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a42…ee8abacked Yes28c70.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+254.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x097d…83f6backed No33c61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27a8…71f1backed No41c60.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed Yes59c57.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0417…ddecbacked Yes49c56.63$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0340…f4d0backed Yes58c55.56$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed Yes57c53.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked No47c50.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a29…bb12backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes42c49.92$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x006f…6b0abacked No41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x403e…7acabacked No53c47.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2fb…2101backed No44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x995c…8770backed Yes44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bc9…55adbacked No76c44.1$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ec…29fdbacked Yes54c43.63$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b09…ce39backed Yes54c42.24$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5445…dce4backed No50c42.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4868…86debacked No58c41.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed No75c40.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+174.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x426d…a4f5backed No53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf07…fce1backed No60c36.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa2…d5f4backed Yes56c35.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd3…bf6ebacked Yes57c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.05540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-35.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed No55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-51.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8c…0c58backed Yes51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79f3…d803backed Yes78c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1fc…87c3backed No43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.