Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb722a5b45981597a72fdf941225286871f207e6c2b84928b603dcb7475c051f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 71c | 6,155$4,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.09 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed No | 27c | 1,991$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.99 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 11c | 1,854$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.75 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 63c | 1,812$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.54 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 70c | 1,227$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.35 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 35c | 1,112$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.49 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 60c | 1,014$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.21 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…03c7backed No | 7c | 909.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…dde5backed Yes | 50c | 847$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 40c | 828.28$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.31 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed No | 14c | 720$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 69c | 488.54$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.81 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed No | 44c | 486.22$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.43 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…5296backed No | 49c | 329.36$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked No | 36c | 279.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 64c | 226.25$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 69c | 172.22$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed No | 13c | 163.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…8a25backed Yes | 78c | 155.78$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 57c | 142$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed No | 38c | 136.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 12c | 124.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Yes | 72c | 90.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164d…30afbacked No | 26c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…1034backed No | 26c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce94…7bb0backed Yes | 74c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 60c | 59.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 43c | 57.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed No | 76c | 51.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1227…0e80backed Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…5c87backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…736ebacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…bf2dbacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 77c | 13.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.