Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b9972c81b798ed4c8172d7710ee93c8421e407cccea7b0bc27281eaf48b7171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked Yes | 64c | 1,451$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 15c | 897.44$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.66 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 61c | 828.23$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.18 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked No | 37c | 702.5$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 26c | 600.88$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.18 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 29c | 551.86$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.04 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked No | 75c | 500$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 27c | 417.93$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 8c | 392.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…9f3dbacked No | 76c | 269.03$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…8b5cbacked Yes | 34c | 236$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…8a25backed Yes | 46c | 222.44$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 29c | 213.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 13c | 151.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 22c | 126.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdd…1457backed Yes | 48c | 84.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 68c | 60.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…02bbbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 30c | 48.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…01c9backed Yes | 63c | 38.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 37c | 38.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 66c | 37.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed No | 72c | 36.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…693abacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 69c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on February 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 43-44°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.