AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x563712756e02495ae20cf6ee8f5124bb6cd1026a0a7ae142a5a5563ac836eed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 69c | 1,849$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.56 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 28c | 1,373$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.85 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,251$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 44c | 1,190$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.8 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 56c | 828.34$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 12c | 800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0314…2f6dbacked No | 66c | 560.38$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 40c | 273.2$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 251$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 47c | 248.27$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.63 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 53c | 240$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 213.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…d92dbacked No | 64c | 194.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 39c | 180$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 49c | 149.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 49c | 137$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…ce38backed Yes | 37c | 117.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 39c | 114.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 30c | 113.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 32c | 91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 28c | 87.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 47c | 81.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…a8ffbacked No | 78c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 75.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 41c | 68.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 57c | 63.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 62.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Yes | 28c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24e…9903backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…7fefbacked No | 66c | 45.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 65c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 51c | 36.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 34.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 51c | 34.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…0688backed Yes | 47c | 31.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed No | 56c | 30.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…8a02backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4b…0ffbbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 27.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 67c | 26.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb94…f433backed No | 50c | 25.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab7f…742bbacked No | 68c | 23.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 25?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.