Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cbbd26783bcd116d86e578a9b267f18eb9e30715cd16774d1947f0796269ad8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5350…cbc2backed Yes | 30c | 1,464$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.79 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…dde5backed Yes | 51c | 1,425$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.06 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 65c | 482.05$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.45 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 33c | 366.07$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.08 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 32c | 299.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Yes | 31c | 257.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 33c | 195.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 70c | 192.07$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 37c | 191.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked No | 72c | 153.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 35c | 126$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 58c | 120.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 101.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d8…1da4backed Yes | 32c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 58c | 77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +9.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked No | 68c | 73.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe230…30c7backed No | 68c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 59c | 52.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa219…9fa2backed No | 66c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…d71cbacked No | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f5…2a99backed Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…2dbabacked Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…62b1backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e4…64dfbacked No | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 45cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c97…362cbacked Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…e928backed No | 68c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…625cbacked No | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…cf90backed Yes | 34c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…0ad9backed No | 59c | 32.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2500…282dbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…d290backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…8ef3backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…78dabacked No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…d2e8backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf682…86ffbacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 23.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2963…6fd5backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…69e6backed No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c4…5120backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a04…d503backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.