Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd498604ba50b31ed2d260deeba48ce55cec53a2d3417b3809486e964ec32aaca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9705…1468backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 59c | 3,426$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.43 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 64c | 953.17$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.77 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked No | 20c | 217.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…4e95backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 38c | 170.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.95 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 168$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4765…e69bbacked Yes | 58c | 141$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…0a89backed No | 42c | 141$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…dde5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…04fabacked No | 29c | 97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a2…6c31backed Yes | 71c | 97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8c…28dbbacked Yes | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…423cbacked Yes | 70c | 94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…8edcbacked No | 42c | 88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d1…3269backed Yes | 58c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…d358backed No | 29c | 78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9c…8862backed No | 35c | 72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…8416backed No | 38c | 68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…08a2backed Yes | 65c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…948fbacked Yes | 71c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d8…f0d3backed No | 29c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 57c | 55.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 62c | 51.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…2660backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…678abacked Yes | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…5c3fbacked No | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f2…b566backed Yes | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…5258backed No | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde6…5406backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 44c | 33.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +9.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…779abacked Yes | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…2425backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc287…7b3dbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…81c3backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…0ad9backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…625cbacked Yes | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344e…73dfbacked Yes | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164d…30afbacked Yes | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc261…6111backed No | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…5524backed Yes | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…fb89backed Yes | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b7…1f61backed Yes | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb7…fc5abacked Yes | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x317e…2d8dbacked Yes | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 74c | 22.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x467b…66ecbacked Yes | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445a…4acbbacked Yes | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855a…678bbacked Yes | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…791ebacked Yes | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…8cf4backed Yes | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…8f72backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bb…3a64backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…203fbacked Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…5509backed Yes | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d1…e528backed Yes | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48e…3136backed Yes | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…8f8cbacked Yes | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…e7b6backed Yes | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa751…2d34backed Yes | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…93fbbacked Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…0b22backed Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.