TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Blue Jays vs. Yankees

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blue Jaysof Blue Jays, Yankees
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,999,108
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,081,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,999,108 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 503 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb980…ae18backed Blue Jays39c1,100,530$429,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671,323.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5681…e113backed Blue Jays40c454,162$181,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272,497.32966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+44.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Yankees61c288,910$176,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176,075.784965.3%32 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+28%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Yankees60c283,855$171,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,3139462.8%59 W · 35 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Yankees51c264,853$134,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134,296.46653%35 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Yankees61c150,657$91,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,894.2555053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Yankees61c145,000$88,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,1506855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Yankees60c100,000$60,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,00053150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yankees62c81,503$50,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,546.897753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Blue Jays38c80,000$30,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,599.837651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Yankees60c76,200$45,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,72011759%69 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Yankees60c70,000$42,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,0002356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Yankees60c60,000$36,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,00013246.2%61 W · 71 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Blue Jays74c59,706$44,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,374.081,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Yankees60c44,706$26,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,997.7130255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yankees52c39,737$20,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,713.4425453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Yankees48c35,162$16,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,972.49146.2%42 W · 49 L-11.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-25.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Blue Jays38c33,471$12,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,752.0460451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Yankees37c30,436$11,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,176.612751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yankees60c24,273$14,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,660.7713353.4%71 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc153…6c8bbacked Yankees62c24,194$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,000.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Blue Jays37c23,965$8,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,139.5326355.5%146 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Yankees61c23,669$14,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,422.8563152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ce…1778backed Yankees0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203531.4%11 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yankees21c18,088$3,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,775.4446239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Blue Jays54c16,416$8,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,473.3914153.9%76 W · 65 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Yankees48c14,424$6,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,881.737139.4%28 W · 43 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Yankees60c14,085$8,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,502.611456.1%64 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Yankees4c14,050$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.340629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Yankees61c13,630$8,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,250.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Blue Jays62c13,158$8,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,946.0512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Yankees16c12,545$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Yankees60c12,500$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5002060%12 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Yankees61c12,000$7,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3201266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yankees61c11,657$7,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,104.231,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Yankees38c11,200$4,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,29517136.8%63 W · 108 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Yankees61c10,000$6,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,05056451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Yankees61c10,000$6,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1006350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Blue Jays38c9,718$3,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,985.911,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Yankees62c8,065$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Blue Jays71c7,973$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,272.565959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00fd…eaedbacked Blue Jays38c7,935$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,919.95771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+48.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yankees60c7,000$4,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1806660.6%40 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yankees61c6,787$4,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,146.912,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yankees14c6,497$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.491,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Blue Jays47c6,087$2,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,217.0619540%78 W · 117 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Yankees54c6,042$3,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,276.4754941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Yankees61c5,871$3,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,568.9673149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yankees61c5,749$3,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50791749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Yankees60c5,540$3,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,341.8411551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa0…09b4backed Blue Jays39c5,128$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,128.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Yankees60c5,092$3,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0551,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Blue Jays38c5,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,10098149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Blue Jays40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0001050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Yankees62c5,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,099.887349.3%36 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Yankees60c4,527$2,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,716.785251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Yankees36c4,359$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.233246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Blue Jays68c4,234$2,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.2214966.4%99 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Yankees49c4,077$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002536%9 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb99…5d0fbacked Yankees59c4,034$2,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3994057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Yankees48c3,352$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.1745248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cef…fe2dbacked Yankees61c3,284$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4929…8618backed Yankees61c3,284$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Yankees61c3,279$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004252.4%22 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Blue Jays59c3,224$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.7878445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Yankees61c3,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.982857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Blue Jays38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.9519252.6%101 W · 91 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yankees44c2,955$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.127341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Yankees53c2,945$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57520747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Blue Jays37c2,736$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.963826.3%10 W · 28 L-6.9wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-42.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf390…79efbacked Blue Jays39c2,700$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6472035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Yankees10c2,664$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.641414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Yankees60c2,610$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.757548%36 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41e…d27dbacked Blue Jays39c2,579$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.2522546.2%104 W · 121 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe478…28eabacked Blue Jays39c2,573$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.456858.8%40 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0336…27a6backed Yankees61c2,458$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Yankees62c2,419$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Blue Jays48c2,391$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.462958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5248…aabbbacked Blue Jays39c2,333$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.132965.5%19 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+33.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yankees1c2,304$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.975053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Yankees60c2,206$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.6443949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde46…a7afbacked Blue Jays38c2,079$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2793444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Yankees61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.0222142.1%93 W · 128 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yankees61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2204143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Yankees29c1,980$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.14531.1%14 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Blue Jays40c1,825$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09522948.9%112 W · 117 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Blue Jays60c1,806$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.5276456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Yankees7c1,800$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12827213.6%37 W · 235 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e0…d720backed Yankees63c1,792$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.031770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+34.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8354…b291backed Blue Jays38c1,791$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.712254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Yankees22c1,776$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.58515.3%13 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Yankees30c1,683$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50063052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0c…9d66backed Blue Jays39c1,668$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…0ccbbacked Yankees61c1,651$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.162445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe05f…b3e8backed Blue Jays46c1,589$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.9929145.4%132 W · 159 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcec6…47c1backed Blue Jays39c1,538$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.466440.6%26 W · 38 L-10.5wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-30.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2a7d…0a62backed Yankees61c1,500$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9155764.9%37 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Blue Jays45c1,500$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82532042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Blue Jays38c1,500$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.999756.7%55 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Yankees1c1,488$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.368762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.