MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5604f8a7feea0c387eda88f60ca2e45eb40f9bdb735956ebbd7d419099ea21d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 50c | 23,748$11,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,823.71 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 53c | 21,265$11,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,994.55 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 29c | 17,556$5,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,083.21 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Over | 47c | 16,222$7,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,624.53 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Under | 50c | 15,551$7,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,797.45 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 44c | 12,623$5,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,551.93 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 9,792$3,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,126.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 48c | 9,601$4,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,560.42 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 52c | 6,354$3,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,049.81 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Under | 71c | 4,037$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 2,753$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.38 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Under | 52c | 2,618$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.53 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…8115backed Under | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 50c | 1,974$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.8 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 1,577$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.7 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…dbedbacked Over | 50c | 1,498$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…e18abacked Over | 50c | 990$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 46c | 764.37$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.61 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 69c | 607.51$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.7 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x678f…74b7backed Over | 49c | 526.14$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Over | 50c | 375$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Over | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Under | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 666 | 45.5%303 W · 363 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Under | 51c | 223.38$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1b…7162backed Over | 35c | 217.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9133…f821backed Over | 49c | 204.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 48c | 169$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Under | 51c | 148$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Under | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 46c | 105.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf31…2931backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf068…6184backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Over | 53c | 95.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Under | 51c | 87.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1895…efd2backed Over | 48c | 85.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 52c | 77.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Over | 38c | 75.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…435cbacked Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 30c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 48c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Over | 46c | 54.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…291bbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 48c | 48.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Over | 51c | 48.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…517abacked Over | 49c | 46.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Over | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 41.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…366bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dff…35d7backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…f5debacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe320…4d16backed Under | 70c | 20.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Blue Jays vs. YankeesBlue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.