TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$492,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$501,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $492,012 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 302 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Magic52c184,207$95,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,419.1626253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Wizards48c100,000$48,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,00054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Wizards48c100,000$48,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,00043148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Wizards48c70,000$33,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,599.9632653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Wizards48c52,028$24,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,868.2259347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Magic52c38,705$20,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,578.711,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Magic52c36,170$18,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,361.421,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Wizards48c27,119$13,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,017.3129650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Magic52c18,888$9,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,066.2147848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Wizards48c14,644$7,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,029.132,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Magic52c13,389$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,388.961,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Wizards48c10,417$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00029347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Magic52c9,000$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,32045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards47c7,521$3,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,567.189,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Magic52c7,515$3,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,607.0817550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Magic52c7,251$3,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,480.4815147%71 W · 80 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Magic53c7,000$3,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2908153.1%43 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Magic52c7,000$3,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,369.9848054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards47c6,662$3,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,131.171,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Magic53c6,604$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,103.7742348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Magic52c6,490$3,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.317144.4%76 W · 95 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Wizards48c6,437$3,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,072.461,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Magic52c5,859$3,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,812.4332150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Magic52c5,859$3,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,812.4319445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfecf…8cc0backed Magic52c5,769$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.23850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa368…d116backed Magic52c5,653$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,713.422839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wizards47c5,607$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.394,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic51c4,303$2,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.924,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Wizards48c4,200$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,01620945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic51c4,150$2,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.844,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f1…4c8abacked Magic52c4,046$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,946.151225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-51%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Magic53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,88079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Magic52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,92024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Magic52c3,846$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.1518749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Magic52c3,740$1,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.2913563%85 W · 50 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Magic52c3,500$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.9843348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Wizards48c2,668$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.4924744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Wizards48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba23…d43dbacked Wizards49c2,330$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.71346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic52c2,328$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.424,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Magic52c2,071$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.1524847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b2d…a88dbacked Wizards50c1,760$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8806439.1%25 W · 39 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Magic52c1,700$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81619359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic53c1,698$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.062,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards47c1,689$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.713,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Magic52c1,667$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.1664651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Magic53c1,500$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71033146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked Magic52c1,496$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.083831.6%12 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Wizards49c1,436$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.978751.7%45 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb73…4182backed Magic50c1,366$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.862100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe19a…0f77backed Wizards50c1,320$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa46a…c13abacked Wizards50c1,278$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9916…ea04backed Magic52c1,260$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.62757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fcf…2c7cbacked Magic50c1,250$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6252100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bf8…dff5backed Wizards50c1,170$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0891…1847backed Wizards50c1,164$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde08…cd6dbacked Magic50c1,134$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+56.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6602…dd20backed Wizards50c1,132$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2420…1328backed Magic50c1,120$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5606100%6 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc56e…0081backed Magic50c1,102$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+58.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13d3…6df9backed Wizards50c1,096$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc023…5353backed Magic50c1,085$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7549…15d0backed Wizards50c1,080$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b5…d691backed Magic50c1,078$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5392100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0722…2a49backed Magic50c1,072$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5362100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6221…9ad9backed Magic50c1,052$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5262100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Wizards48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018448.9%90 W · 94 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29ab…b49cbacked Wizards50c1,022$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Wizards49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Wizards49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Magic52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48026149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Magic52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9fe…7431backed Wizards50c996$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8370…171abacked Wizards50c990$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.07666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Magic53c989$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.8354443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Magic52c978.44$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.525951.4%133 W · 126 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7865…5a91backed Magic50c978$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4892100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56e8…156dbacked Wizards50c972$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4369…38abbacked Wizards50c972$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cab…5d7ebacked Magic50c972$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4862100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9da7…a88abacked Magic50c970$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd25f…7810backed Magic50c944$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4722100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9bb…f8f8backed Magic50c924$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4622100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe05…ed77backed Magic50c912$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe17b…42b8backed Wizards50c908$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4bb…75aebacked Wizards50c908$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b79…41e6backed Wizards50c876$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb90d…be7cbacked Wizards50c876$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a4…70debacked Wizards50c875$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43a9…9d48backed Magic50c868$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4342100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3721…0356backed Wizards50c852$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…91bfbacked Wizards50c850$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951e…891fbacked Magic50c832$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4162100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36b8…1c66backed Wizards50c828$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10e0…52d2backed Magic50c816$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1296…be84backed Magic50c804$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b0c…6392backed Wizards50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd6…8ecfbacked Wizards50c796$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Magic52c772.59$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.832346.4%150 W · 173 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8665…6dd9backed Wizards50c764$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.