NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaad698500d6d417272784d0bcffc1b9bbcb5a210fe5ac25215646d9e4632fe6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over | 54c | 14,112$7,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,491.73 | 662 | 48.5%321 W · 341 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 46c | 8,436$3,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,880.56 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,845$2,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,745.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Over | 53c | 5,254$2,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.45 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Under | 46c | 4,989$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 55c | 2,165$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.07 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 53c | 1,851$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.03 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 1,705$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.01 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 44c | 1,517$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.83 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Under | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 184 | 48.9%90 W · 94 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 946.32$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.09 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 47c | 799.99$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 53c | 664$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.08 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 42c | 548.4$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.59 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 58c | 529$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.82 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 46c | 310$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 55c | 274.55$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.91 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 170.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 45c | 169.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 47c | 155.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 46c | 155$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 153.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 53c | 142.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Under | 45c | 128.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 128.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 49c | 97.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 61c | 90.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…b637backed Under | 47c | 89.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 173 | 31.8%55 W · 118 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 52c | 85.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 545 | 49.5%270 W · 275 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…effdbacked Under | 46c | 85.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 55c | 84.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 47c | 82.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Over | 52c | 81.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 44c | 79.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 46c | 77.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 46c | 77.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 46c | 63.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…c71ebacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Under | 47c | 49.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…59a6backed Over | 52c | 48.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 35.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…801cbacked Over | 55c | 32.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 55c | 29.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 22.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Over | 56c | 20.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 226.5this page
- Anthony Black: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-16.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Wizards vs. MagicMagic won
- Wizards vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Wizards vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.