NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c69c1200f78249e9f2e79a1fc930980e5d5b53287c1fa64e35c0e60f8df4360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Under | 54c | 1,069$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,009$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 54c | 931.49$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 46c | 760$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 54c | 558.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 47c | 532.61$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.93 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 45c | 426.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.85 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Over | 46c | 426$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.04 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 56c | 393.02$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 53c | 318.93$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.69 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 212.53$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 45c | 160.96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 47c | 154.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 46c | 134.03$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 394 | 35.3%139 W · 255 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 50c | 74.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 57c | 64.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…2985backed Under | 55c | 54.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 55c | 30.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8d…c1cbbacked Under | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Under | 75c | 13.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 229.5this page
- Anthony Black: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-16.5)Magic won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Wizards vs. MagicMagic won
- Wizards vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Wizards vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.