NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 228.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27061f649ac2d6eecc52c996d0941215d0d4d207e1cc90f2bdb593b0173a0575

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $559,326
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $560,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $559,326 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over	50c	511,212$255,481 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255,731.57	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under	50c	216,530$108,265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108,265.21	662	48.5%321 W · 341 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	50c	200,000$100,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100,000	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	50c	40,876$20,485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20,485.38	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	51c	22,705$11,513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,513.26	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Under	51c	5,431$2,770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,770	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	50c	4,236$2,138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,138.32	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a5…419dbacked Under	51c	3,443$1,756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,755.93	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	49cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Under	50c	3,333$1,667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,666.5	147	53.1%78 W · 69 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Under	51c	3,119$1,591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,590.84	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	-6.0wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Under	51c	2,762$1,409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,408.81	81	48.1%39 W · 42 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Over	49c	2,345$1,149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,195.95	214	46.7%100 W · 114 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Under	51c	2,000$1,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,010	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	51c	1,589$810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$810.32	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	51c	1,424$719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.2	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	49c	1,184$581 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$603.61	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	51c	1,102$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.38	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under	51c	1,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	475	42.3%201 W · 274 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under	53c	1,000$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525	807	37.7%304 W · 503 L	-33.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Under	51c	1,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	142	44.4%63 W · 79 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Under	51c	980.39$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Under	51c	980.39$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	463	46.4%215 W · 248 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	48c	975.39$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.19	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Under	51c	938$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.38	544	43%234 W · 310 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Over	48c	936$449 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$486.72	221	43%95 W · 126 L	-12.0wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	49c	926.96$454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$472.75	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Under	51c	588.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	111	42.3%47 W · 64 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa583…2928backed Over	49c	568.24$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.24	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	35c	522.65$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$340.79	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under	65c	522.08$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.35	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	44c	514$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.5	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over	49c	499.98$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.99	841	50.3%423 W · 418 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Under	51c	430$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.3	194	34.5%67 W · 127 L	-10.2wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-20%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8487…a68bbacked Under	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	70c	288.56$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.99	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	51c	269$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.19	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	50c	250$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Under	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40b3…9ef3backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Under	51c	176.47$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	624	50%312 W · 312 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	50c	123.02$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.51	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Under	51c	116.02$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.17	321	48.3%155 W · 166 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under	50c	110$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	545	49.5%270 W · 275 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a8…eb4ebacked Under	51c	107.84$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	48	50%24 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Over	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	534	53.4%285 W · 249 L	+19.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	51c	100.94$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.48	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x762d…872abacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.0wins	+0.15per pick	54cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under	50c	98.4$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.2	795	49.7%395 W · 400 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…e4bebacked Under	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18e4…e2bbbacked Under	50c	95.1$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.55	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Under	31c	90$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.9	230	47.4%109 W · 121 L	+19.2wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Under	51c	78$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.78	390	55.6%217 W · 173 L	+8.8wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under	51c	75$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.25	786	48.7%383 W · 403 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Over	28c	71.41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.42	108	54.6%59 W · 49 L	+6.4wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4bf…c71ebacked Over	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+3.5wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed Under	50c	55$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	223	36.8%82 W · 141 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Over	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	529	51.2%271 W · 258 L	+13.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over	37c	44.02$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.67	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	47c	35.89$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.97	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb628…fd2bbacked Over	64c	33.12$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.92	118	73.7%87 W · 31 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbeaa…e2d0backed Under	51c	31.37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d69…01aebacked Over	50c	30.2$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.2	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf52f…b2f5backed Under	51c	26.78$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.66	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under	54c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	454	52%236 W · 218 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	48c	24.37$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.67	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf375…a60cbacked Over	50c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.08	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	54c	23.47$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.57	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under	69c	22.76$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.74	658	72.8%479 W · 179 L	+46.1wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under	64c	22.02$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e4a…7045backed Under	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	227	48.9%111 W · 116 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7356…b839backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa488…91c3backed Under	72c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 228.5this page
Anthony Black: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Anthony Black: Points O/U 15.5No won
Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 11.5No won
Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 14.5No won
Spread: Magic (-15.5)Magic won
Spread: Magic (-16.5)Magic won
Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 11.5No won
Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
Wizards vs. MagicMagic won
Wizards vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
Wizards vs. Magic: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Over won
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Over won
Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Wizards vs. Magic: O/U 228.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event