TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Sabres

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sabresof Lightning, Sabres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,616,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,682,272

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,616,016 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,031 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Sabres48c489,590$234,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255,225.831,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Lightning53c463,558$244,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244,776.0811644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Lightning52c200,892$104,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104,464.0551550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Sabres48c101,892$48,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,984.0615054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Sabres49c80,285$39,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,945.3748545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccc1…889dbacked Lightning52c60,481$31,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,454.15666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa56d…82e7backed Lightning51c60,006$30,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,603.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Lightning52c60,000$31,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,199.8667051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f28…266ebacked Sabres48c38,500$18,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,019.861947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xebe5…b317backed Lightning52c38,000$19,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,76050%0 W · 5 L-2.9wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Lightning52c35,005$18,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,202.636748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Lightning51c30,568$15,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,589.8848549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Lightning52c30,000$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,6001,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Sabres49c29,387$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,987.5718853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Sabres48c28,685$13,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,050.815639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Sabres59c28,676$16,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,877.4127448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Sabres49c25,127$12,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,834.110941.3%45 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Sabres52c21,779$11,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,419.9712654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Sabres49c20,383$9,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,395.4119759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Lightning51c17,800$9,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,1545552.7%29 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Sabres49c17,774$8,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,140.3727044.4%120 W · 150 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Sabres47c14,852$6,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,871.565350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Lightning52c11,000$5,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,72026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Sabres48c11,000$5,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7201747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf984…5098backed Sabres49c10,204$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,204.0810647.2%50 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Sabres49c10,174$4,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,188.6337754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Lightning52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20012950.4%65 W · 64 L+10.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Sabres46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4003100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+70.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lightning51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1001,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Sabres48c9,870$4,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,132.557258.3%42 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning52c9,557$5,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,017.021,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning52c9,267$4,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,801.0461950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Lightning53c9,000$4,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,74029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Lightning52c9,000$4,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,68051045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Sabres48c8,597$4,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,470.534452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lightning50c8,018$3,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,984.382,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Sabres49c7,850$3,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,003.6433450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Sabres49c7,428$3,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,763.4940356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Lightning52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Lightning52c5,500$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,859.981952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Lightning52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60032151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed8…4388backed Sabres48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6001442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb03…5ae4backed Sabres48c4,441$2,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,309.3230365.7%199 W · 104 L+22.5wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Lightning52c4,340$2,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,278.4920756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lightning45c4,336$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.0240351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Lightning51c4,213$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,148.3952050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Sabres49c4,057$1,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,068.887557.3%43 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Lightning24c4,031$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.7961748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Sabres47c4,004$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,122.019751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Sabres47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.0843548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Sabres47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.0660249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Sabres47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.0327850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Sabres47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked Lightning53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12013946.8%65 W · 74 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe562…cd68backed Sabres47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1202100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Lightning52c3,978$2,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,059.0476950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3aa3…448dbacked Lightning53c3,773$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf953…6673backed Lightning53c3,743$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.79560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Lightning53c3,400$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80214954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5741…fb99backed Sabres68c3,338$2,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.67847.4%37 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Sabres48c3,333$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.16771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lightning37c3,295$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.242,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sabres54c3,286$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.082,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4880…5626backed Sabres49c3,245$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.1613252.3%69 W · 63 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Sabres49c3,036$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,548.4714062.1%87 W · 53 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Lightning53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59012445.2%56 W · 68 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Lightning54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62024945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4c1…5177backed Lightning45c3,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick52cpaid-59.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbed3…2811backed Sabres58c2,876$1,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.641942.1%8 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.21per pick63cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Lightning51c2,870$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.7759450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Sabres48c2,850$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4828748.3%42 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35a6…cb8fbacked Sabres47c2,835$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,502.552429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6bcd…33d2backed Sabres48c2,750$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4301100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc32e…20e1backed Sabres48c2,749$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Lightning49c2,738$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.7142254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed Lightning22c2,735$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.041346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Sabres49c2,707$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.5730946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0e…bf45backed Lightning37c2,700$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lightning51c2,545$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.152,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Lightning51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27531848.7%155 W · 163 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Sabres46c2,500$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3406245.2%28 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff84…b0e8backed Sabres48c2,489$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.282100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44dc…2ddbbacked Sabres48c2,395$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.41668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+37.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6236…1df8backed Lightning53c2,371$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.464546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Lightning53c2,300$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,21983652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed Lightning52c2,298$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.011735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4bf…83d2backed Sabres48c2,276$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Lightning33c2,271$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.2630259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Sabres47c2,230$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.699350.5%47 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning52c2,222$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.4486649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b1…f737backed Lightning41c2,209$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89928447.9%136 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Lightning39c2,115$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.9235551%181 W · 174 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc947…3462backed Sabres49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.822360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Sabres49c2,016$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.0719150.8%97 W · 94 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Sabres67c2,012$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.93,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Sabres48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd63…cf21backed Sabres49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0201764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked Lightning52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0404748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Sabres47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Lightning52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0402441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.