NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47743d6f792d7f32f88de23f5ba1c7da2795f0dae42d72a5f62be214251b7a92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 52c | 6,625$3,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,438.58 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 49c | 2,390$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.04 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 2,377$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.92 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e65…4994backed Under | 51c | 2,180$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.39 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…df72backed Under | 6c | 1,818$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Under | 51c | 1,770$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.29 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 51c | 1,569$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.55 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 55c | 1,154$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.15 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,004$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.9 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 50c | 996.7$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.43 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff2…2e8abacked Under | 51c | 855.85$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…a659backed Under | 48c | 684.55$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.97 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Under | 51c | 555.09$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 518.19$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.46 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…ce52backed Over | 52c | 503.85$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 50c | 489.6$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.16 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 348.49$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.3 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 53c | 326.92$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.04 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 261.47$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.01 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…100fbacked Under | 53c | 252$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.49 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 49c | 238$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.38 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 48c | 200.01$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.01 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…9bd9backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 67c | 167.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.05 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 48c | 149.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89aa…a254backed Over | 49c | 148.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 80c | 147.77$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.95 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 27c | 145$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…8866backed Under | 8c | 140.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +311%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 38c | 137.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.77 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 51c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 61c | 95.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 48c | 84.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…a5e9backed Over | 54c | 82.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 47c | 61.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Over | 49c | 55.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 69c | 47.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 48c | 41.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 44c | 38.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 38c | 36.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Over | 47c | 35.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 49c | 35.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 36c | 34.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed Over | 63c | 31.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…21ecbacked Over | 50c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Under | 38c | 27.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Under | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 72c | 25.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb265…4d08backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…b762backed Over | 48c | 23.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…ffcdbacked Over | 48c | 22.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…9255backed Under | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 51c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 60c | 20.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…7c7bbacked Over | 80c | 15.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 78cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. SabresSabres won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.